Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 66.77%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 13.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.44%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arouca |
66.77% ( 0.13) | 20.07% ( 0.3) | 13.16% ( -0.43) |
Both teams to score 46.41% ( -2.12) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.78% ( -2.22) | 47.22% ( 2.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.55% ( -2.1) | 69.45% ( 2.1) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.77% ( -0.63) | 13.23% ( 0.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.02% ( -1.3) | 39.98% ( 1.3) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.49% ( -2.04) | 46.51% ( 2.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.88% ( -1.61) | 82.12% ( 1.61) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arouca |
2-0 @ 12.58% ( 0.56) 1-0 @ 12.44% ( 0.84) 2-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 8.49% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 6.5% ( -0.23) 4-0 @ 4.29% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.2) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.24) 5-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 1.33% ( -0.12) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.15) Other @ 2.73% Total : 66.76% | 1-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.55) 2-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.26) Other @ 0.7% Total : 20.07% | 0-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.1) Other @ 1.14% Total : 13.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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