Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
43.96% ( 0.47) | 27.26% ( 0.06) | 28.77% ( -0.54) |
Both teams to score 48.01% ( -0.46) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.94% ( -0.46) | 57.06% ( 0.45) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.05% ( -0.37) | 77.94% ( 0.36) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.22% ( 0.03) | 25.78% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.27% ( 0.05) | 60.73% ( -0.05) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.69% ( -0.66) | 35.31% ( 0.66) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.94% ( -0.69) | 72.06% ( 0.69) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Portimonense |
1-0 @ 12.33% ( 0.22) 2-1 @ 8.71% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.36% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 3.93% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.78% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.19% Total : 43.96% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.16) 2-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.25% | 0-1 @ 9.48% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.69% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.07% Total : 28.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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