Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 75.18%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 9.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.38%) and 0-3 (10.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.48%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-0 (3.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Benfica |
9.08% ( 0) | 15.74% ( 0) | 75.18% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 46.84% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.06% ( 0.01) | 38.94% ( -0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.74% ( 0.01) | 61.26% ( -0) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.34% ( 0.01) | 48.65% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.29% ( 0.01) | 83.7% ( -0.01) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.23% ( 0) | 8.76% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
69.89% ( 0) | 30.1% |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 3.07% 2-1 @ 2.69% ( 0) 2-0 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 2.2% Total : 9.08% | 1-1 @ 7.48% 0-0 @ 4.26% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.28% ( 0) Other @ 0.71% Total : 15.74% | 0-2 @ 12.63% 0-1 @ 10.38% 0-3 @ 10.25% 1-2 @ 9.1% ( 0) 1-3 @ 7.39% 0-4 @ 6.24% ( -0) 1-4 @ 4.5% 0-5 @ 3.04% 2-3 @ 2.66% ( 0) 1-5 @ 2.19% 2-4 @ 1.62% ( 0) 0-6 @ 1.23% Other @ 3.94% Total : 75.17% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 87 | 27 | 60 | 80 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 24 | 31 | 62 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 43 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
12 | SC FarenseFarense | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 31 |
13 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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