Champions League

Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg

Apr 19, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Inter Milan
3 - 3
Benfica

(Inter Milan win 5-3 on aggregate)

Barella (14'), Martinez (65'), Correa (78')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Aursnes (38'), Silva (86'), Musa (90+5')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Inter Milan

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Inter Milan 0-1 Monza
Saturday, April 15 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Benfica

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Chaves 1-0 Benfica
Saturday, April 15 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 39.23%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 34.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 1-0 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Inter Milan	Draw	Benfica
34.15% ( 0.28)	26.62% ( 0.13)	39.23% ( -0.41)

Both teams to score 51.93% (

-0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47% (

-0.49)

53% (

0.48)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.41% (

-0.42)

74.59% (

0.41)

Inter Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.57% (

-0.06)

29.42% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.58% (

-0.08)

65.42% (

0.07)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.57% (

-0.45)

26.42% (

0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.41% (

-0.6)

61.59% (

0.6)

Score Analysis

Inter Milan 34.15%

Benfica 39.22%

Draw 26.61%

Inter Milan	Draw	Benfica
1-0 @ 9.51% ( 0.16) 2-1 @ 7.74% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 5.82% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.16% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.37% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 0.97% Other @ 2.48% Total : 34.15%	1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.61%	0-1 @ 10.34% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 8.42% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 6.89% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.74% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.23% Total : 39.22%