Primeira Liga | Gameweek 1

Aug 13, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
4 - 3
Estoril

Mujica (20'), Cristo (57'), Feltes (73' og.), Santos (90+6')
Esgaio (4'), Sylla (10'), Kouassi (21'), Santos (90+7')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Holsgrove (10'), Marques (49'), Marques (70')
Holsgrove (41'), Gomes (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 2-1 Brann
Thursday, August 10 at 7pm in Europa Conference League

Goals
for

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 5-1 CF Os Belenenses
Saturday, July 29 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Estoril Praia
45.18% ( -0.07)	27.27% ( 0.12)	27.55% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 47.24% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.31% (

-0.47)

57.69% (

0.47)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.55% (

-0.37)

78.45% (

0.37)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.54% (

-0.24)

25.46% (

0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.71% (

-0.34)

60.29% (

0.34)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.37% (

-0.3)

36.63% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.58% (

-0.31)

73.42% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Arouca 45.17%

Estoril Praia 27.55%

Draw 27.27%

Arouca	Draw	Estoril Praia
1-0 @ 12.75% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.22% Total : 45.17%	1-1 @ 12.81% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.33% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.27%	0-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 4.7% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.84% Total : 27.55%