Arouca
Conference League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg
Aug 10, 2023 at 7pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
2 - 1
Brann

Mujica (23'), Cristo (74')
Galovic (64'), Busquets (85')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Warming (79')
Warming (71'), Baardsen Pedersen (81')
Coverage of the Conference League Third Qualifying Round clash between Arouca and SK Brann.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Arouca 2-0 Rio Ave
Sunday, July 30 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga
Last Game: HamKam 0-2 Brann
Sunday, August 6 at 4pm in Norwegian Eliteserien

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SK Brann win with a probability of 58.25%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 21.26% and a draw had a probability of 20.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a SK Brann win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.88%) and 0-1 (7.36%). The likeliest Arouca win was 2-1 (5.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.

Result
AroucaDrawSK Brann
21.26% (-0.153 -0.15)20.49% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)58.25% (0.153 0.15)
Both teams to score 62.44% (-0.229 -0.23)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.47% (-0.19900000000001 -0.2)34.53% (0.198 0.2)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.54% (-0.223 -0.22)56.46% (0.221 0.22)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.74% (-0.245 -0.25)29.26% (0.244 0.24)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.78% (-0.302 -0.3)65.21% (0.301 0.3)
SK Brann Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.26% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)11.73% (0.019 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.12% (-0.041999999999994 -0.04)36.88% (0.040999999999997 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Arouca 21.26%
    SK Brann 58.25%
    Draw 20.49%
AroucaDrawSK Brann
2-1 @ 5.56% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-0 @ 4.22% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
2-0 @ 2.59% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.44% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-1 @ 2.28% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-0 @ 1.06% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 21.26%
1-1 @ 9.04% (0.022 0.02)
2-2 @ 5.95% (-0.031 -0.03)
0-0 @ 3.43% (0.035 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.74% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 0.32%
Total : 20.49%
1-2 @ 9.69% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
0-2 @ 7.88% (0.068000000000001 0.07)
0-1 @ 7.36% (0.068 0.07)
1-3 @ 6.92% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 5.63% (0.043 0.04)
2-3 @ 4.25% (-0.024999999999999 -0.02)
1-4 @ 3.71%
0-4 @ 3.02% (0.021 0.02)
2-4 @ 2.28% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-5 @ 1.59% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-5 @ 1.29% (0.008 0.01)
2-5 @ 0.98% (-0.007 -0.01)
3-4 @ 0.93% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 58.25%

How you voted: Arouca vs Brann

Arouca
28.6%
Draw
28.6%
SK Brann
42.9%
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