Portimonense
Taca da Liga | First Round
Jul 23, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Portimao
Estrela Amadora

Portimonense
3 - 1
Estrela Amadora

Amorim (6' pen.), Carrillo (62'), Carlinhos (82' pen.)
Carlinhos (33'), Seck (73'), Silvestre da Costa (74'), Mauricio (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Tavares (58')
Mansur (1'), Lopes (5'), Carlos Silva Reis (81')
Coverage of the Taca da Liga First Round clash between Portimonense and Estrela Amadora.

Form, Standings, Stats

Portimonense

All competitions
Last Game: Portimonense 1-4 Celtic
Saturday, July 15 at 11am in Club Friendlies 1

Estrela Amadora

All competitions
Last Game: Maritimo 2-1 Estrela Amadora (2-3 pen.)
Sunday, June 11 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 39.88%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 35.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.04%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-2 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.

Result
PortimonenseDrawEstrela Amadora
39.88% (-2.009 -2.01)24.44% (0.51 0.51)35.68% (1.507 1.51)
Both teams to score 59.65% (-1.53 -1.53)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.84% (-2.133 -2.13)43.16% (2.141 2.14)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.44% (-2.142 -2.14)65.56% (2.148 2.15)
Portimonense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.32% (-1.84 -1.84)21.68% (1.849 1.85)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.17% (-2.899 -2.9)54.83% (2.908 2.91)
Estrela Amadora Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.16% (-0.155 -0.16)23.84% (0.163 0.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.98% (-0.227 -0.23)58.02% (0.234 0.23)
Score Analysis
    Portimonense 39.88%
    Estrela Amadora 35.68%
    Draw 24.44%
PortimonenseDrawEstrela Amadora
2-1 @ 8.66% (-0.193 -0.19)
1-0 @ 7.9% (0.304 0.3)
2-0 @ 6.04% (-0.106 -0.11)
3-1 @ 4.41% (-0.361 -0.36)
3-2 @ 3.16% (-0.275 -0.28)
3-0 @ 3.08% (-0.237 -0.24)
4-1 @ 1.69% (-0.245 -0.25)
4-2 @ 1.21% (-0.182 -0.18)
4-0 @ 1.18% (-0.164 -0.16)
Other @ 2.55%
Total : 39.88%
1-1 @ 11.32% (0.38 0.38)
2-2 @ 6.21% (-0.169 -0.17)
0-0 @ 5.17% (0.473 0.47)
3-3 @ 1.51% (-0.14 -0.14)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 24.44%
1-2 @ 8.12% (0.238 0.24)
0-1 @ 7.41% (0.646 0.65)
0-2 @ 5.31% (0.44 0.44)
1-3 @ 3.88% (0.096 0.1)
2-3 @ 2.97% (-0.096 -0.1)
0-3 @ 2.54% (0.2 0.2)
1-4 @ 1.39% (0.028 0.03)
2-4 @ 1.06% (-0.039 -0.04)
0-4 @ 0.91% (0.067 0.07)
Other @ 2.08%
Total : 35.68%