Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 33.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
39.33% ( -0.3) | 27.61% ( 0.33) | 33.06% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 48.65% ( -0.98) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.95% ( -1.23) | 57.04% ( 1.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.07% ( -0.99) | 77.93% ( 0.99) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.73% ( -0.75) | 28.27% ( 0.75) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.01% ( -0.96) | 63.99% ( 0.96) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.82% ( -0.64) | 32.18% ( 0.64) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.34% ( -0.74) | 68.66% ( 0.74) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 3.06% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.8% Total : 39.33% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.42) 2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.61% | 0-1 @ 10.31% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.74% Total : 33.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 31 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 89 | 29 | 60 | 81 |
2 | Benfica | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 71 | 25 | 46 | 76 |
3 | Porto | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 57 | 26 | 31 | 63 |
4 | Braga | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 18 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 32 | 14 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 46 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 45 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 36 |
9 | Casa Pia | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 35 |
10 | SC FarenseFarense | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 34 |
11 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 33 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 5 | 17 | 9 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 32 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 35 | 57 | -22 | 30 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 7 | 7 | 17 | 34 | 66 | -32 | 28 |
17 | ChavesChaves | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 65 | -34 | 23 |
18 | Vizela | 31 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 22 |
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