Taca de Portugal | Third Round
Oct 22, 2023 at 3pm UK
Estadio Do Algarve
Vitoria de Guimaraes

Moncarapachense
1 - 3
Guimaraes

Souza (40' pen.)
Teixeira (49'), Souza (73'), Davi (75'), Ballo (86')
FT(HT: 1-3)
Ribeiro (13'), Handel (19'), Silva (25')
Silva (45+1')
Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Third Round clash between Moncarapachense and Vitoria de Guimaraes.

Form, Standings, Stats

Moncarapachense

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions
Last Game: Famalicao 1-3 Guimaraes
Sunday, October 8 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 61.16%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Moncarapachense had a probability of 17.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.61%) and 1-2 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Moncarapachense win it was 1-0 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
MoncarapachenseDrawVitoria de Guimaraes
17.42% (0.92 0.92)21.42% (0.542 0.54)61.16% (-1.46 -1.46)
Both teams to score 52.15% (0.155 0.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.17% (-0.768 -0.77)44.83% (0.771 0.77)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.81% (-0.745 -0.74)67.18% (0.745 0.75)
Moncarapachense Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.76% (0.662 0.66)39.24% (-0.661 -0.66)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.05% (0.612 0.61)75.95% (-0.611 -0.61)
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.83% (-0.68899999999999 -0.69)14.16% (0.689 0.69)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.15% (-1.365 -1.37)41.84% (1.365 1.37)
Score Analysis
    Moncarapachense 17.42%
    Vitoria de Guimaraes 61.15%
    Draw 21.42%
MoncarapachenseDrawVitoria de Guimaraes
1-0 @ 5.2% (0.26 0.26)
2-1 @ 4.75% (0.205 0.21)
2-0 @ 2.43% (0.163 0.16)
3-1 @ 1.48% (0.089 0.09)
3-2 @ 1.45% (0.052 0.05)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 17.42%
1-1 @ 10.16% (0.26 0.26)
0-0 @ 5.56% (0.182 0.18)
2-2 @ 4.65% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
3-3 @ 0.94% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 21.42%
0-1 @ 10.86% (0.09 0.09)
0-2 @ 10.61% (-0.18 -0.18)
1-2 @ 9.93% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
0-3 @ 6.92% (-0.3 -0.3)
1-3 @ 6.47% (-0.16 -0.16)
0-4 @ 3.38% (-0.236 -0.24)
1-4 @ 3.16% (-0.16 -0.16)
2-3 @ 3.03% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.48% (-0.047 -0.05)
0-5 @ 1.32% (-0.129 -0.13)
1-5 @ 1.24% (-0.096 -0.1)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 61.15%