Estoril
Taca de Portugal | Fourth Round
Nov 26, 2023 at 5pm UK
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota
Mafra

Estoril
2 - 1
Mafra

Tavares (51'), Cassiano (82')
Marques (25'), Araujo (67')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Almeida (28')
Balbudia (72')
Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Fourth Round clash between Estoril Praia and Mafra.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estoril Praia

All competitions
Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Estoril 4-0 Casa Pia
Friday, November 10 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Mafra

All competitions
Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Mafra 3-1 Feirense
Sunday, October 22 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 45.31%. A win for Mafra had a probability of 30.17% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.09%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Mafra win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Estoril Praia in this match.

Result
Estoril PraiaDrawMafra
45.31% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)24.52% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)30.17% (0.011999999999997 0.01)
Both teams to score 57.4% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.75% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)45.25% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.41% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)67.59% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Estoril Praia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.92% (0.0010000000000048 0)20.08% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.69% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)52.31% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Mafra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.82% (0.010999999999996 0.01)28.18% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.12% (0.012999999999998 0.01)63.88% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Estoril Praia 45.31%
    Mafra 30.17%
    Draw 24.51%
Estoril PraiaDrawMafra
2-1 @ 9.24%
1-0 @ 9.09% (-0.0029999999999983 -0)
2-0 @ 7.29% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
3-1 @ 4.94% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 3.9% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-2 @ 3.13%
4-1 @ 1.98% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-0 @ 1.57%
4-2 @ 1.26%
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 45.31%
1-1 @ 11.5%
2-2 @ 5.85% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 5.66% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 24.51%
1-2 @ 7.29% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-1 @ 7.17%
0-2 @ 4.54% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 3.08% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 2.47% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.92% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 0.97% (0.001 0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 30.17%