Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 53.96%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 22.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.79%) and 0-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.