Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Nov 28, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys

Barcelona
2 - 1
Porto

Cancelo (32'), Felix (57')
de Jong (37'), Felix (59')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Pepe (30')
Cardoso (36'), Mario (57'), Pepe (74')

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Barcelona

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Barcelona
Saturday, November 25 at 1pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Porto

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Porto 4-0 Montalegre
Friday, November 24 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Porto had a probability of 32.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.13%). The likeliest Porto win was 0-1 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.

Result
Barcelona	Draw	Porto
41.58% ( 0.02)	25.9% ( 0.02)	32.52% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 53.84% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.65% (

-0.09)

50.35% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.71% (

-0.08)

72.29% (

0.08)

Barcelona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.01% (

-0.03)

23.99% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.77% (

-0.04)

58.23% (

0.04)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.83% (

-0.07)

29.17% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.89% (

-0.09)

65.1% (

0.09)

Score Analysis

Barcelona 41.58%

Porto 32.52%

Draw 25.89%

Barcelona	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.79% 2-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.18% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.39% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.49% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.21% 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 1.9% Total : 41.58%	1-1 @ 12.3% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.89%	0-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.31% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.18% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.53% Total : 32.52%