Porto
Taca de Portugal | Fourth Round
Nov 24, 2023 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio Do Dragao

Porto
4 - 0
Montalegre

Loader (13'), Evanilson (18', 44'), Navarro (62')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Ngom (83'), David (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Taca de Portugal clash between Porto and Montalegre, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions
Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Guimaraes 1-2 Porto
Saturday, November 11 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Montalegre

All competitions
Last Game: Montalegre 2-1 Pevidem
Sunday, October 22 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 90.78%. A draw had a probability of 6.5% and a win for Montalegre had a probability of 2.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (10.72%) and 2-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.05%), while for a Montalegre win it was 1-2 (0.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
PortoDrawMontalegre
90.78% (0.012 0.01)6.55% (-0.0061 -0.01)2.67% (-0.008 -0.01)
Both teams to score 43.21% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
79.72% (-0.01400000000001 -0.01)20.28% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
61.51% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)38.49% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
97.46% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)2.54% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
88.12% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)11.88% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Montalegre Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.34% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)55.66% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.73% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)88.27% (0.028999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Porto 90.77%
    Montalegre 2.67%
    Draw 6.55%
PortoDrawMontalegre
3-0 @ 11.67% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-0 @ 10.72% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.54% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
5-0 @ 7.87% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.84% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 6.28% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-1 @ 5.59% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-0 @ 5.2% (0.0049999999999999 0)
6-0 @ 4.82% (0.0039999999999996 0)
5-1 @ 4.61% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
6-1 @ 2.82% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
7-0 @ 2.53% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.01% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.84% (-0.004 -0)
7-1 @ 1.48% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
5-2 @ 1.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
8-0 @ 1.16% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 4.44%
Total : 90.77%
1-1 @ 3.05% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-2 @ 1.64% (-0.004 -0)
0-0 @ 1.42% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 6.55%
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 2.67%

How you voted: Porto vs Montalegre

Porto
87.5%
Draw
0.0%
Montalegre
12.5%
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