Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 47.92%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 27.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.43%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 1-0 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.