Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 47.92%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 27.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.43%) and 0-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 1-0 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Porto |
| 27.35% ( | 24.73% ( | 47.92% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.76% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.16% ( | 47.83% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.98% ( | 70.02% ( |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.46% ( | 31.54% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.07% ( | 67.93% ( |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.99% ( | 20.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.79% ( | 52.21% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 7.28% ( 2-1 @ 6.76% ( 2-0 @ 4.2% ( 3-1 @ 2.6% ( 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 3-0 @ 1.62% ( Other @ 2.79% Total : 27.35% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0-0 @ 6.31% ( 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 3-3 @ 1.12% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.72% | 0-1 @ 10.15% ( 1-2 @ 9.43% ( 0-2 @ 8.17% ( 1-3 @ 5.06% ( 0-3 @ 4.38% ( 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 1-4 @ 2.03% ( 0-4 @ 1.76% ( 2-4 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 2.85% Total : 47.92% |