Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 56.33%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 23.64% and a draw had a probability of 20%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.87%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.