Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Helmond Sport win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Helmond Sport win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.82%) and 1-0 (5.54%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Helmond Sport would win this match.