Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Helmond Sport win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 33.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Helmond Sport win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.84%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Helmond Sport would win this match.