Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NAC Breda win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 35.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a NAC Breda win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.54%) and 0-2 (5.96%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NAC Breda would win this match.

Result
Jong AZ	Draw	NAC Breda
35.36% ( -0.2)	24.06% ( 0.05)	40.59% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 61.02% (

-0.21)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.65% (

-0.26)

41.35% (

0.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.25% (

-0.27)

63.75% (

0.27)

Jong AZ Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.82% (

-0.23)

23.18% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.93% (

-0.34)

57.07% (

0.34)

NAC Breda Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.44% (

-0.04)

20.56% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.92% (

-0.06)

53.08% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Jong AZ 35.36%

NAC Breda 40.59%

Draw 24.05%

Jong AZ	Draw	NAC Breda
2-1 @ 8.06% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.97% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.93% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.48% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.25% Total : 35.36%	1-1 @ 11.02% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.37% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 4.77% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.05%	1-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 5.96% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.6% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 1.82% 2-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.88% Total : 40.59%