Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 72.17%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 11.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 3-0 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.49%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 1-2 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.