Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 34.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.75%) and 0-2 (6.09%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.