Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 45.2%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.09%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.