Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 55.41%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 22.75% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.43%) and 0-2 (8.27%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (5.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.