Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Helmond Sport win with a probability of 48.95%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 27.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Helmond Sport win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.