Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 50.73%. A win for Helmond Sport had a probability of 26.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.61%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Helmond Sport win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.