Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dordrecht win with a probability of 47.18%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dordrecht win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.84%) and 3-2 (5.04%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (6.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dordrecht would win this match.