Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 53.28%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 24.79% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.