Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.9%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.