Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 65.79%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 14.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 1-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.02%), while for a MVV Maastricht win it was 1-2 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.