Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 56.03%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 22.24% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (5.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.97%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.