Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 48.91%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 27.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.19%) and 0-2 (7.31%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for De Graafschap in this match.