Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Den Bosch win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 34.05% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Den Bosch win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 1-2 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Den Bosch would win this match.