Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong AZ win with a probability of 47.43%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong AZ win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.01%) and 2-0 (5.84%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong AZ would win this match.