Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 54.74%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 24.01% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.34%) and 1-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (6.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.