Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 57.2%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 22.11% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.67%) and 1-0 (7.22%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.09%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.