Primeira Liga | Gameweek 16

Jan 5, 2024 at 6.45pm UK

Estadio Jose Alvalade

Sporting Lisbon
5 - 1
Estoril

Edwards (21', 45+2'), Alvaro (51' og.), Goncalves (69'), Trincao (78')
Adan (82')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Cassiano (82')
Alvaro (39'), Tavares (83'), Mangala (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Portimonense 1-2 Sporting Lisbon
Saturday, December 30 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 4-0 Farense
Saturday, December 30 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 81.42%. A draw had a probability of 12.3% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 6.23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.48%) and 1-0 (8.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.85%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (2.1%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Estoril Praia
81.42% ( 0.34)	12.35% ( -0.29)	6.23% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 45.34% (

0.88)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.93% (

1.27)

33.06% (

-1.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.2% (

1.45)

54.79% (

-1.45)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

93.84% (

0.32)

6.16% (

-0.33)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

76.68% (

0.9)

23.31% (

-0.9)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

48.32% (

0.77)

51.68% (

-0.78)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

14.2% (

0.5)

85.79% (

-0.51)

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 81.41%

Estoril Praia 6.23%

Draw 12.35%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Estoril Praia
2-0 @ 12.36% ( -0.36) 3-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.12) 1-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.44) 2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.16) 5-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.12) 5-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.09) 6-0 @ 2.07% ( 0.09) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.09) 6-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.09) 5-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.59% Total : 81.41%	1-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 3.18% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.62% Total : 12.35%	0-1 @ 2.1% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 1.93% ( -0) Other @ 2.2% Total : 6.23%