Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 45.53%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 26.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.88%), while for a Rampla Juniors win it was 0-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.