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May 19, 2022 at 7.45pm UK at Vale Park
Port Vale
1 - 0
Swindon
Wilson (8')
Wilson (42'), Pett (59')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Iandolo (56'), Conroy (95'), McKirdy (120+1')
Port Vale win 6-5 on penalties
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's League Two clash between Port Vale and Swindon Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Port Vale 1-2 Swindon Town (Swindon to win 4-2 on aggregate)

Back on home territory, Port Vale will fancy their chances of turning things around to earn a spot in the final. However, we cannot ignore Swindon's recent winning streak, a run of results which should provide them with the confidence to move closer to promotion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 37.55%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 36.4% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Port Vale in this match.

Result
Port ValeDrawSwindon Town
37.55% (0.365 0.37) 26.05% (-0.724 -0.72) 36.4% (0.362 0.36)
Both teams to score 54.06% (2.413 2.41)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.61% (3.059 3.06)50.39% (-3.054 -3.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (2.647 2.65)72.32% (-2.643 -2.64)
Port Vale Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.85% (1.648 1.65)26.14% (-1.644 -1.64)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.78% (2.16 2.16)61.22% (-2.156 -2.16)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.2% (1.674 1.67)26.8% (-1.67 -1.67)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.91% (2.153 2.15)62.09% (-2.151 -2.15)
Score Analysis
    Port Vale 37.55%
    Swindon Town 36.4%
    Draw 26.04%
Port ValeDrawSwindon Town
1-0 @ 9.4% (-0.731 -0.73)
2-1 @ 8.3% (0.154 0.15)
2-0 @ 6.31% (-0.182 -0.18)
3-1 @ 3.71% (0.234 0.23)
3-0 @ 2.82% (0.051 0.05)
3-2 @ 2.45% (0.26 0.26)
4-1 @ 1.25% (0.131 0.13)
4-0 @ 0.95% (0.06 0.06)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 37.55%
1-1 @ 12.37% (-0.35 -0.35)
0-0 @ 7.01% (-0.906 -0.91)
2-2 @ 5.47% (0.347 0.35)
3-3 @ 1.07% (0.158 0.16)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 26.04%
0-1 @ 9.23% (-0.714 -0.71)
1-2 @ 8.15% (0.154 0.15)
0-2 @ 6.07% (-0.169 -0.17)
1-3 @ 3.58% (0.229 0.23)
0-3 @ 2.67% (0.052 0.05)
2-3 @ 2.4% (0.255 0.26)
1-4 @ 1.18% (0.126 0.13)
Other @ 3.13%
Total : 36.4%

How you voted: Port Vale vs Swindon

Port Vale
39.0%
Draw
18.6%
Swindon Town
42.4%
59
Head to Head
May 15, 2022 12pm
Swindon
2-1
Port Vale
McKirdy (26', 68')
Davison (32'), Reed (77')
Wilson (83')
Charsley (42')
Jan 15, 2022 3pm
Port Vale
1-3
Swindon
Harratt (26')
Lucas (45+3')
Williams (20'), Gladwin (45+5' pen.), Smith (69' og.)
Lyden (81')
Sep 11, 2021 3pm
Swindon
1-2
Port Vale
Simpson (49')
Payne (13'), Simpson (45+4'), Gilbert (55'), Parsons (83')
Garrity (22', 81')
Jones (27')
Jan 25, 2020 3pm
Swindon
3-0
Port Vale
Legge (41' og.), Hope (45'), Doughty (60')
Doughty (91')

Atkinson (34'), Joyce (42'), Brisley (85'), Legge (87')
Dec 29, 2019 3pm
Port Vale
2-0
Swindon
Burgess (13'), Taylor (52')
Legge (4'), Gibbons (45')

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