Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 43.16%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.84%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Port Vale in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Port Vale.