Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 48.98%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Sutton United had a probability of 24.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Sutton United win it was 0-1 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.