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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-0 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Port Vale |
| 31.71% | 27.44% | 40.85% |
| Both teams to score 48.78% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.3% | 56.7% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.34% | 77.65% |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.06% | 32.93% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.49% | 69.51% |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.74% | 27.26% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.3% | 62.69% |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | Port Vale |
| 1-0 @ 9.97% 2-1 @ 7.2% 2-0 @ 5.54% 3-1 @ 2.67% 3-0 @ 2.05% 3-2 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.56% Total : 31.71% | 1-1 @ 12.96% 0-0 @ 8.98% 2-2 @ 4.68% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.44% | 0-1 @ 11.66% 1-2 @ 8.42% 0-2 @ 7.58% 1-3 @ 3.65% 0-3 @ 3.29% 2-3 @ 2.03% 1-4 @ 1.19% 0-4 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.96% Total : 40.84% |