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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-0 (9.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
Result | ||
Swindon Town | Draw | Port Vale |
31.71% | 27.44% | 40.85% |
Both teams to score 48.78% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.3% | 56.7% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.34% | 77.65% |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.06% | 32.93% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.49% | 69.51% |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.74% | 27.26% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.3% | 62.69% |
Score Analysis |
Swindon Town | Draw | Port Vale |
1-0 @ 9.97% 2-1 @ 7.2% 2-0 @ 5.54% 3-1 @ 2.67% 3-0 @ 2.05% 3-2 @ 1.73% Other @ 2.56% Total : 31.71% | 1-1 @ 12.96% 0-0 @ 8.98% 2-2 @ 4.68% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.44% | 0-1 @ 11.66% 1-2 @ 8.42% 0-2 @ 7.58% 1-3 @ 3.65% 0-3 @ 3.29% 2-3 @ 2.03% 1-4 @ 1.19% 0-4 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.96% Total : 40.84% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 95 | 46 | 49 | 92 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 89 | 46 | 43 | 85 |
P | Wrexham | 45 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 87 | 51 | 36 | 85 |
4 | MK Dons | 45 | 23 | 8 | 14 | 79 | 64 | 15 | 77 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 21 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 66 | 5 | 70 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 45 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 70 |
7 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 68 |
8 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 71 | 67 | 4 | 67 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 45 | 18 | 12 | 15 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 66 |
10 | Walsall | 45 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 68 | 68 | 0 | 65 |
11 | Gillingham | 45 | 18 | 9 | 18 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 63 |
12 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 62 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 17 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 62 |
14 | Notts County | 45 | 18 | 7 | 20 | 89 | 85 | 4 | 61 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 17 | 6 | 22 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 57 |
16 | Morecambe | 45 | 17 | 9 | 19 | 64 | 78 | -14 | 57 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 61 | 72 | -11 | 55 |
18 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 15 | 9 | 21 | 59 | 70 | -11 | 54 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 74 | 80 | -6 | 53 |
20 | Salford City | 45 | 13 | 11 | 21 | 64 | 80 | -16 | 50 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 57 | 72 | -15 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 58 | 79 | -21 | 44 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 55 | 80 | -25 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 10 | 9 | 26 | 43 | 78 | -35 | 39 |
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