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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.33%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (8.43%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Port Vale | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 28.5% | 27.17% | 44.33% |
| Both teams to score 48.12% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.15% | 56.85% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.22% | 77.78% |
| Port Vale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.59% | 35.41% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.83% | 72.17% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.49% | 25.5% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.65% | 60.35% |
| Score Analysis |
| Port Vale | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 9.38% 2-1 @ 6.65% 2-0 @ 4.87% 3-1 @ 2.3% 3-0 @ 1.68% 3-2 @ 1.57% Other @ 2.05% Total : 28.5% | 1-1 @ 12.81% 0-0 @ 9.03% 2-2 @ 4.54% Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.17% | 0-1 @ 12.33% 1-2 @ 8.75% 0-2 @ 8.43% 1-3 @ 3.99% 0-3 @ 3.84% 2-3 @ 2.07% 1-4 @ 1.36% 0-4 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.24% Total : 44.32% |