Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 32.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Swindon Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Swindon Town.