Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 57.6%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Albania had a probability of 17.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.77%) and 1-2 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for an Albania win it was 1-0 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Italy would win this match.

Result
Albania	Draw	Italy
17.99% ( 0.02)	24.41% ( 0)	57.6% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 44.36% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.17% (

0.01)

55.82% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.05% (

0.01)

76.95% (

-0.01)

Albania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.94% (

0.03)

45.05% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.02% (

0.02)

80.97% (

-0.02)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.73% (

-0.01)

19.27% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49% (

-0.01)

50.99% (

Score Analysis

Albania 17.99%

Italy 57.59%

Draw 24.4%

Albania	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 6.92% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.54% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.76% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.21% ( 0) 3-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 1.56% Total : 17.99%	1-1 @ 11.39% 0-0 @ 8.68% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0) Other @ 0.59% Total : 24.4%	0-1 @ 14.29% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 11.77% 1-2 @ 9.39% ( 0) 0-3 @ 6.46% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.15% 0-4 @ 2.66% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.12% 2-3 @ 2.05% ( 0) Other @ 3.7% Total : 57.59%