UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Jun 14, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Germany
5 - 2
Italy

Kimmich (10'), Gundogan (45+4' pen.), Muller (51'), Werner (68', 69')
Rudiger (61'), Sane (82')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Gnonto (78'), Bastoni (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Nations League clash between Germany and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Germany could line up for Tuesday's Nations League clash with Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

Germany

Last Six:

Last Game: Hungary 1-1 Germany
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	3	1	5
2	Hungary	3	0	4
3	Germany	3	0	3
4	England	3	-1	2

Italy

Last Six:

Last Game: England 0-0 Italy
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	3	1	5
2	Hungary	3	0	4
3	Germany	3	0	3
4	England	3	-1	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 45.95%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Italy had a probability of 26.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.8%), while for a Italy win it was 0-1 (9.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.

Result
Germany	Draw	Italy
45.95% ( 0.04)	27.36% ( 0.01)	26.69% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 46.43% (

-0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.55% (

-0.07)

58.44% (

0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.96% (

-0.05)

79.04% (

0.05)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.58% (

-0.01)

25.42% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.77% (

-0.02)

60.23% (

0.02)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.25% (

-0.08)

37.75% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.47% (

-0.07)

74.53% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Germany 45.94%

Italy 26.69%

Draw 27.36%

Germany	Draw	Italy
1-0 @ 13.14% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.77% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.41% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.37% ( -0) Other @ 2.19% Total : 45.94%	1-1 @ 12.8% 0-0 @ 9.6% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.27% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.36%	0-1 @ 9.35% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.67% Total : 26.69%