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UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Italy national football team
Nations League | League A
Jun 4, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
 
Germany national football team

Italy
1 - 1
Germany

Pellegrini (70')
Pellegrini (51'), Florenzi (62'), Tonali (66'), Bastoni (80'), Cancellieri (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kimmich (73')
Kehrer (62'), Havertz (83'), Werner (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Nations League clash between Italy and Germany, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Germany could line up for Saturday's Nations League clash with Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

Last Six:
Last Game: Italy 2-1 Hungary
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: England vs. Italy
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Germany

Last Six:
Last Game: Germany 1-1 England
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: Hungary vs. Germany
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Italy 0-1 Germany

 Few would have predicted such difficult times ahead for the European champions so soon after their crowning glory last July, but morale-drained Italy are a shadow of their former selves and now enter a tricky transition. Germany are far further ahead in their development, and can find goals from a variety of sources, so should return home with an opening Nations League victory before reconvening with old foes England next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Italy had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Italy win was 2-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawGermany
30.85% (0.174 0.17) 23.62% (0.027999999999999 0.03) 45.53% (-0.203 -0.2)
Both teams to score 60.94% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.24% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)40.75% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.85% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)63.14% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.48% (0.085999999999999 0.09)25.51% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.63% (0.116 0.12)60.36% (-0.116 -0.12)
Germany Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.81% (-0.101 -0.1)18.18% (0.1 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.82% (-0.17 -0.17)49.18% (0.17 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Italy 30.85%
    Germany 45.53%
    Draw 23.61%
ItalyDrawGermany
2-1 @ 7.38% (0.028 0.03)
1-0 @ 6.34% (0.029 0.03)
2-0 @ 4.33% (0.03 0.03)
3-1 @ 3.36% (0.021 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.86% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.97% (0.019 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.15% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.98% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 30.85%
1-1 @ 10.8% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.29% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 4.64% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.63%
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 23.61%
1-2 @ 9.21% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-1 @ 7.91% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.74% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 5.23% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-3 @ 3.83% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.57% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.23% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-4 @ 1.63% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.52% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.65%
Total : 45.53%

How you voted: Italy vs Germany

Italy
20.1%
Draw
22.2%
Germany
57.7%
418
Head to Head
Mar 31, 2020 7.45pm
Germany
P-P
Italy
Nov 15, 2016 7.45pm
Italy
0-0
Germany

Tah (61'), Gundogan (84')
> Match Report
Jul 2, 2016 8pm
Germany
1-1
Italy
Ozil (65')
Hummels (90'), Schweinsteiger (112')
Bonucci (78' pen.)
Sturaro (56'), De Sciglio (57'), Parolo (59'), Pelle (91'), Giaccherini (103')
> Match Report
Mar 29, 2016 7.45pm
Germany
4-1
Italy
Kroos (24'), Gotze (45'), Hector (59'), Ozil (75' pen.)
Hummels (57'), Mustafi (77')
El Shaarawy (83')
Giaccherini (15')
> Match Report
Nov 15, 2013 7.45pm
Italy
1-1
Germany
Abate (28')
Marchisio (70'), Motta (82')
Hummels (8')
Lahm (54'), Kroos (82')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
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