MX23RW : Wednesday, December 11 10:01:18| >> :600:451608:451608:
UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League
Italy national football team
Nations League | League A
Jun 4, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
 
Germany national football team

Italy
1 - 1
Germany

Pellegrini (70')
Pellegrini (51'), Florenzi (62'), Tonali (66'), Bastoni (80'), Cancellieri (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Kimmich (73')
Kehrer (62'), Havertz (83'), Werner (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Nations League clash between Italy and Germany, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Germany could line up for Saturday's Nations League clash with Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

Last Six:
Last Game: Italy 2-1 Hungary
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: England vs. Italy
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Germany

Last Six:
Last Game: Germany 1-1 England
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League
Next Game: Hungary vs. Germany
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

We said: Italy 0-1 Germany

 Few would have predicted such difficult times ahead for the European champions so soon after their crowning glory last July, but morale-drained Italy are a shadow of their former selves and now enter a tricky transition. Germany are far further ahead in their development, and can find goals from a variety of sources, so should return home with an opening Nations League victory before reconvening with old foes England next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Italy had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Italy win was 2-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawGermany
30.85% (0.174 0.17) 23.62% (0.027999999999999 0.03) 45.53% (-0.203 -0.2)
Both teams to score 60.94% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.24% (-0.047000000000004 -0.05)40.75% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.85% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)63.14% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.48% (0.085999999999999 0.09)25.51% (-0.085999999999999 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.63% (0.116 0.12)60.36% (-0.116 -0.12)
Germany Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.81% (-0.101 -0.1)18.18% (0.1 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.82% (-0.17 -0.17)49.18% (0.17 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Italy 30.85%
    Germany 45.53%
    Draw 23.61%
ItalyDrawGermany
2-1 @ 7.38% (0.028 0.03)
1-0 @ 6.34% (0.029 0.03)
2-0 @ 4.33% (0.03 0.03)
3-1 @ 3.36% (0.021 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.86% (0.008 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.97% (0.019 0.02)
4-1 @ 1.15% (0.01 0.01)
4-2 @ 0.98% (0.006 0.01)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 30.85%
1-1 @ 10.8% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-2 @ 6.29% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-0 @ 4.64% (0.010000000000001 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.63%
Other @ 0.26%
Total : 23.61%
1-2 @ 9.21% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-1 @ 7.91% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.74% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 5.23% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-3 @ 3.83% (-0.029 -0.03)
2-3 @ 3.57% (-0.01 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.23% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-4 @ 1.63% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-4 @ 1.52% (-0.0090000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.65%
Total : 45.53%

How you voted: Italy vs Germany

Italy
20.1%
Draw
22.2%
Germany
57.7%
418
Head to Head
Mar 31, 2020 7.45pm
Germany
P-P
Italy
Nov 15, 2016 7.45pm
Italy
0-0
Germany

Tah (61'), Gundogan (84')
> Match Report
Jul 2, 2016 8pm
Germany
1-1
Italy
Ozil (65')
Hummels (90'), Schweinsteiger (112')
Bonucci (78' pen.)
Sturaro (56'), De Sciglio (57'), Parolo (59'), Pelle (91'), Giaccherini (103')
> Match Report
Mar 29, 2016 7.45pm
Germany
4-1
Italy
Kroos (24'), Gotze (45'), Hector (59'), Ozil (75' pen.)
Hummels (57'), Mustafi (77')
El Shaarawy (83')
Giaccherini (15')
> Match Report
Nov 15, 2013 7.45pm
Italy
1-1
Germany
Abate (28')
Marchisio (70'), Motta (82')
Hummels (8')
Lahm (54'), Kroos (82')
> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool14112129111835
2Chelsea1594235181731
3Arsenal1585229151429
4Manchester CityMan City158342721627
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest157441918125
6Aston Villa157442323025
7Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton156632522324
8Bournemouth157352320324
9Brentford157263128323
10Fulham156542220223
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1562731191220
12Newcastle UnitedNewcastle155551921-220
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd155461918119
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham155372028-818
15Everton143561421-714
16Leicester CityLeicester153572130-914
17Crystal Palace152761420-613
18Ipswich TownIpswich151681427-139
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1523102338-159
20Southampton1512121131-205
> Premier League Full Table


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!