UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League A

Jun 4, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Italy
1 - 1
Germany

Pellegrini (70')
Pellegrini (51'), Florenzi (62'), Tonali (66'), Bastoni (80'), Cancellieri (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kimmich (73')
Kehrer (62'), Havertz (83'), Werner (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Nations League clash between Italy and Germany, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Germany could line up for Saturday's Nations League clash with Italy.

Form, Standings, Stats

Italy

Last Six:

Last Game: Italy 2-1 Hungary
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Next Game: England vs. Italy
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	2	1	4
2	Hungary	2	0	3
3	Germany	2	0	2
4	England	2	-1	1

Germany

Last Six:

Last Game: Germany 1-1 England
Tuesday, June 7 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Next Game: Hungary vs. Germany
Saturday, June 11 at 7.45pm in Nations League

Current League A3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Italy	2	1	4
2	Hungary	2	0	3
3	Germany	2	0	2
4	England	2	-1	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Italy had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.91%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Italy win was 2-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.

Result
Italy	Draw	Germany
30.85% ( 0.17)	23.62% ( 0.03)	45.53% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 60.94% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.24% (

-0.05)

40.75% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.85% (

-0.05)

63.14% (

0.05)

Italy Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.48% (

0.09)

25.51% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.63% (

0.12)

60.36% (

-0.12)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.81% (

-0.1)

18.18% (

0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.82% (

-0.17)

49.18% (

0.17)

Score Analysis

Italy 30.85%

Germany 45.53%

Draw 23.61%

Italy	Draw	Germany
2-1 @ 7.38% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.86% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.49% Total : 30.85%	1-1 @ 10.8% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( 0) 0-0 @ 4.64% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.63% Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.61%	1-2 @ 9.21% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 6.74% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5.23% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.83% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 3.57% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.23% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.65% Total : 45.53%