Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tranmere Rovers win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tranmere Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.14%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (9.49%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.