Derby County and Middlesbrough square off at Pride Park on Saturday afternoon on the back of mixed starts to the new Championship campaign.
Although the clubs endured mixed fortunes in midweek, they head into this encounter having claimed four points from three matches.
Match preview
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Having conceded two late goals to Peterborough United at the weekend, Wayne Rooney had a major job on his hands when it came to lifting his Derby squad ahead of the visit to Hull City.
However, aided by new arrivals Phil Jagielka and Sam Baldock, the Rams posted their first league win of the season courtesy of the latter's debut goal.
A combined age of 75 between Jagielka and Curtis Davies means that they will not be regarded as a long-term defensive partnership, but their experience proved invaluable in edging out potential rivals for relegation.
While more free transfers will inevitably come through the door over the coming two weeks, Rooney can start to feel confident that he has a squad capable of avoiding the drop.
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Although these two sides currently have the same amount of points, Neil Warnock will expect Middlesbrough to be competing at the right end of the standings.
That said, their 3-2 reverse at home to Queens Park Rangers exposed problematic areas and a lack of strength in depth when having to contend with injuries.
On another day, Jonny Howson would not have put through his own net for the equaliser, but Warnock will be concerned at the manner of the capitulation that followed.
Boro have now conceded eight goals across four matches in all competitions, leaving it likely that Luke Daniels will be handed his debut between the sticks at the weekend.
However, Middlesbrough require more than just Matt Crooks and Uche Ikpeazu, who have scored all but one of the team's goals, making contributions at the other end of the pitch.
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Team News
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Having played 90 minutes on his first appearance of the season, veteran Jagielka may be replaced by Richard Stearman in the Derby defence
Lee Buchanan should start at left-back, despite speculation regarding his future, while Baldock is in line to keep his place in attack after coming through 74 minutes on his debut.
Daniels looks a near certainty to make his debut for Boro after Joe Lumley's poor performance against QPR.
Martin Payero may be provided with his first Championship start in midfield, potentially in place of Howson.
Attacking duo Marcus Tavernier and Duncan Watmore are expected to sit out at least one more fixture due to injury.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Roos; Byrne, Stearman, Davies, Buchanan; Bird, Shinnie; Sibley, Morrison, Jozwiak; Baldock
Middlesbrough possible starting lineup:
Daniels; Dijksteel, Hall, Fry, Bola; Howson, McNair; Spence, Crooks, Jones; Ikpeazu
We say: Derby County 1-1 Middlesbrough
For the large part of their opening three matches, Derby have looked solid at the back. However, despite improving in confidence, we do not feel that the Rams will have enough in the tank to prevent Middlesbrough from earning a share of the spoils in a low-scoring game.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
