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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (10%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Middlesbrough |
30.98% | 27.58% | 41.43% |
Both teams to score 48.1% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
42.56% | 57.44% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
21.75% | 78.25% |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.16% | 33.84% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.49% | 70.51% |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.71% | 27.29% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.27% | 62.73% |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Middlesbrough |
1-0 @ 10% 2-1 @ 7.04% 2-0 @ 5.42% 3-1 @ 2.54% 3-0 @ 1.96% 3-2 @ 1.65% Other @ 2.37% Total : 30.98% | 1-1 @ 12.99% 0-0 @ 9.24% 2-2 @ 4.57% Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.58% | 0-1 @ 11.99% 1-2 @ 8.44% 0-2 @ 7.79% 1-3 @ 3.65% 0-3 @ 3.37% 2-3 @ 1.98% 1-4 @ 1.19% 0-4 @ 1.09% Other @ 1.93% Total : 41.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leicester CityLeicester | 44 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 86 | 39 | 47 | 94 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 44 | 27 | 9 | 8 | 80 | 37 | 43 | 90 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 43 | 26 | 11 | 6 | 85 | 53 | 32 | 89 |
4 | Southampton | 44 | 25 | 9 | 10 | 85 | 61 | 24 | 84 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 44 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 67 | 44 | 23 | 72 |
6 | Norwich CityNorwich | 44 | 21 | 9 | 14 | 77 | 61 | 16 | 72 |
7 | Hull City | 43 | 18 | 12 | 13 | 62 | 54 | 8 | 66 |
8 | Coventry CityCoventry | 42 | 17 | 12 | 13 | 66 | 52 | 14 | 63 |
9 | Middlesbrough | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 64 | 60 | 4 | 63 |
10 | Preston North EndPreston | 44 | 18 | 9 | 17 | 56 | 61 | -5 | 63 |
11 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 44 | 19 | 5 | 20 | 50 | 61 | -11 | 62 |
12 | Bristol City | 44 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 51 | 47 | 4 | 59 |
13 | Sunderland | 44 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 52 | 51 | 1 | 56 |
14 | Swansea CitySwansea | 44 | 15 | 11 | 18 | 57 | 62 | -5 | 56 |
15 | Watford | 44 | 12 | 17 | 15 | 59 | 58 | 1 | 53 |
16 | Millwall | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 43 | 55 | -12 | 53 |
17 | Stoke CityStoke | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 50 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 50 |
19 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 44 | 13 | 10 | 21 | 58 | 74 | -16 | 49 |
20 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 44 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 58 | 69 | -11 | 48 |
21 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 44 | 13 | 8 | 23 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 47 |
22 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 44 | 12 | 10 | 22 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 46 |
23 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 44 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 47 | 74 | -27 | 44 |
R | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 44 | 4 | 12 | 28 | 32 | 85 | -53 | 24 |
> Championship Full Table |