Copa Sudamericana | Round of 16 | 1st Leg

Jul 1, 2022 at 1.30am UK

Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Catolica
2 - 4
Sao Paulo

Zampedri (47'), Valencia (85')
Enrique Gonzalez Orellana (12'), Gonzalez (12'), Zampedri (84')

FT(HT: 0-3)

Reinaldo (15' pen.), Luciano (28', 39'), Calleri (63')
Vinicius (23'), Calleri (55'), Anderson (60'), Reinaldo (77'), Luciano (88'), Maia (90+2')
Vinicius (51'), Nestor (73'), Calleri (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Universidad Catolica and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad Catolica

Last Game: Catolica 0-1 Talleres
Wednesday, May 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Sao Paulo

Last Six:

Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-0 Juventude
Sunday, June 26 at 10pm in Brasileiro

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
7	Santos	14	5	19
8	Sao Paulo	14	3	19
9	Bragantino	14	1	18

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 38.95%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 32.21% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.87%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.

Result
Universidad Catolica	Draw	Sao Paulo
32.21% ( 0.02)	28.84% ( 0.02)	38.95% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 44.95% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.44% (

-0.05)

61.56% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.59% (

-0.04)

81.41% (

0.04)

Universidad Catolica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.86% (

-0)

35.14% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.11% (

-0.01)

71.89% (

0.01)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.29% (

-0.05)

30.71% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.04% (

-0.05)

66.96% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Universidad Catolica 32.21%

Sao Paulo 38.95%

Draw 28.83%

Universidad Catolica	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 11.28% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 6.97% 2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.43% 3-0 @ 2.06% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0) Other @ 2.13% Total : 32.21%	1-1 @ 13.32% 0-0 @ 10.78% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0) Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.83%	0-1 @ 12.73% 1-2 @ 7.87% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.52% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.24% Total : 38.95%