UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Third Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Aug 4, 2022 at 8pm UK

Stadion Bijeli Brijeg

Zrinjski Mostar
1 - 0
Tobol

(Zrinjski Mostar win 2-1 on aggregate)

Jankovic (76')
Bilbija (31'), Corluka (42'), Mandic (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Tagybergen (28'), Maliy (48'), Tomasevic (84'), Zharynbetov (90+3')
Tomasevic (84')

Coverage of the Conference League Third Qualifying Round clash between Zrinjski Mostar and Tobol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Zrinjski Mostar

Last Game: Zrinjski Mostar 3-2 KF Tirana
Thursday, July 28 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

Tobol

Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Tobol
Tuesday, July 26 at 5pm in Europa Conference League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zrinjski Mostar win with a probability of 42.84%. A win for Tobol had a probability of 32.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Zrinjski Mostar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Tobol win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zrinjski Mostar would win this match.

Result
Zrinjski Mostar	Draw	Tobol
42.84% ( 0.43)	24.57% ( -0.17)	32.59% ( -0.26)

Both teams to score 58.35% (

0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.5% (

0.67)

44.5% (

-0.67)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.13% (

0.64)

66.87% (

-0.65)

Zrinjski Mostar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.14% (

0.48)

20.86% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.44% (

0.75)

53.56% (

-0.75)

Tobol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.73% (

0.16)

26.26% (

-0.16)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.62% (

0.22)

61.38% (

-0.22)

Score Analysis

Zrinjski Mostar 42.84%

Tobol 32.59%

Draw 24.57%

Zrinjski Mostar	Draw	Tobol
2-1 @ 9% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 6.73% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.7% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.72% Total : 42.84%	1-1 @ 11.48% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 5.48% ( -0.16) 3-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.57%	1-2 @ 7.68% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.18) 0-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 3.42% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.68% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.14% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.26% Total : 32.59%